Toward physics-based precision medicine: Exploiting protein dynamics to design new therapeutics and interpret variants.

The goal of precision medicine is to utilize our knowledge of the molecular causes of disease to better diagnose and treat patients. However, there is a substantial mismatch between the small number of food and drug administration (FDA)-approved drugs and annotated coding variants compared to the needs of precision medicine. This review introduces the concept of physics-based precision medicine, a scalable framework that promises to improve our understanding of sequence-function relationships and accelerate drug discovery. We show that accounting for the ensemble of structures a protein adopts in solution with computer simulations overcomes many of the limitations imposed by assuming a single protein structure. We highlight studies of protein dynamics and recent methods for the analysis of structural ensembles. These studies demonstrate that differences in conformational distributions predict functional differences within protein families and between variants. Thanks to new computational tools that are providing unprecedented access to protein structural ensembles, this insight may enable accurate predictions of variant pathogenicity for entire libraries of variants. We further show that explicitly accounting for protein ensembles, with methods like alchemical free energy calculations or docking to Markov state models, can uncover novel lead compounds. To conclude, we demonstrate that cryptic pockets, or cavities absent in experimental structures, provide an avenue to target proteins that are currently considered undruggable. Taken together, our review provides a roadmap for the field of protein science to accelerate precision medicine.

PopShift: A Thermodynamically Sound Approach to Estimate Binding Free Energies by Accounting for Ligand-Induced Population Shifts from a Ligand-Free Markov State Model.

Obtaining accurate binding free energies from in silico screens has been a long-standing goal for the computational chemistry community. However, accuracy and computational cost are at odds with one another, limiting the utility of methods that perform this type of calculation. Many methods achieve massive scale by explicitly or implicitly assuming that the target protein adopts a single structure, or undergoes limited fluctuations around that structure, to minimize computational cost. Others simulate each protein-ligand complex of interest, accepting lower throughput in exchange for better predictions of binding affinities. Here, we present the PopShift framework for accounting for the ensemble of structures a protein adopts and their relative probabilities. Protein degrees of freedom are enumerated once, and then arbitrarily many molecules can be screened against this ensemble. Specifically, we use Markov state models (MSMs) as a compressed representation of a protein's thermodynamic ensemble. We start with a ligand-free MSM and then calculate how addition of a ligand shifts the populations of each protein conformational state based on the strength of the interaction between that protein conformation and the ligand. In this work we use docking to estimate the affinity between a given protein structure and ligand, but any estimator of binding affinities could be used in the PopShift framework. We test PopShift on the classic benchmark pocket T4 Lysozyme L99A. We find that PopShift is more accurate than common strategies, such as docking to a single structure and traditional ensemble docking─producing results that compare favorably with alchemical binding free energy calculations in terms of RMSE but not correlation─and may have a more favorable computational cost profile in some applications. In addition to predicting binding free energies and ligand poses, PopShift also provides insight into how the probability of different protein structures is shifted upon addition of various concentrations of ligand, providing a platform for predicting affinities and allosteric effects of ligand binding. Therefore, we expect PopShift will be valuable for hit finding and for providing insight into phenomena like allostery.

PopShift: A thermodynamically sound approach to estimate binding free energies by accounting for ligand-induced population shifts from a ligand-free MSM.

Obtaining accurate binding free energies from in silico screens has been a longstanding goal for the computational chemistry community. However, accuracy and computational cost are at odds with one another, limiting the utility of methods that perform this type of calculation. Many methods achieve massive scale by explicitly or implicitly assuming that the target protein adopts a single structure, or undergoes limited fluctuations around that structure, to minimize computational cost. Others simulate each protein-ligand complex of interest, accepting lower throughput in exchange for better predictions of binding affinities. Here, we present the PopShift framework for accounting for the ensemble of structures a protein adopts and their relative probabilities. Protein degrees of freedom are enumerated once, and then arbitrarily many molecules can be screened against this ensemble. Specifically, we use Markov state models (MSMs) as a compressed representation of a protein's thermodynamic ensemble. We start with a ligand-free MSM and then calculate how addition of a ligand shifts the populations of each protein conformational state based on the strength of the interaction between that protein conformation and the ligand. In this work we use docking to estimate the affinity between a given protein structure and ligand, but any estimator of binding affinities could be used in the PopShift framework. We test PopShift on the classic benchmark pocket T4 Lysozyme L99A. We find that PopShift is more accurate than common strategies, such as docking to a single structure and traditional ensemble docking-producing results that compare favorably with alchemical binding free energy calculations in terms of RMSE but not correlation - and may have a more favorable computational cost profile in some applications. In addition to predicting binding free energies and ligand poses, PopShift also provides insight into how the probability of different protein structures is shifted upon addition of various concentrations of ligand, providing a platform for predicting affinities and allosteric effects of ligand binding. Therefore, we expect PopShift will be valuable for hit finding and for providing insight into phenomena like allostery.

Apolipoprotein E4 has extensive conformational heterogeneity in lipid-free and lipid-bound forms.

The ε4-allele variant of apolipoprotein E (ApoE4) is the strongest genetic risk factor for Alzheimer's disease, although it only differs from its neutral counterpart ApoE3 by a single amino acid substitution. While ApoE4 influences the formation of plaques and neurofibrillary tangles, the structural determinants of pathogenicity remain undetermined due to limited structural information. Previous studies have led to conflicting models of the C-terminal region positioning with respect to the N-terminal domain across isoforms largely because the data are potentially confounded by the presence of heterogeneous oligomers. Here, we apply a combination of single-molecule spectroscopy and molecular dynamics simulations to construct an atomically detailed model of monomeric ApoE4 and probe the effect of lipid association. Importantly, our approach overcomes previous limitations by allowing us to work at picomolar concentrations where only the monomer is present. Our data reveal that ApoE4 is far more disordered and extended than previously thought and retains significant conformational heterogeneity after binding lipids. Comparing the proximity of the N- and C-terminal domains across the three major isoforms (ApoE4, ApoE3, and ApoE2) suggests that all maintain heterogeneous conformations in their monomeric form, with ApoE2 adopting a slightly more compact ensemble. Overall, these data provide a foundation for understanding how ApoE4 differs from nonpathogenic and protective variants of the protein.

Drug specificity and affinity are encoded in the probability of cryptic pocket opening in myosin motor domains.

The design of compounds that can discriminate between closely related target proteins remains a central challenge in drug discovery. Specific therapeutics targeting the highly conserved myosin motor family are urgently needed as mutations in at least six of its members cause numerous diseases. Allosteric modulators, like the myosin-II inhibitor blebbistatin, are a promising means to achieve specificity. However, it remains unclear why blebbistatin inhibits myosin-II motors with different potencies given that it binds at a highly conserved pocket that is always closed in blebbistatin-free experimental structures. We hypothesized that the probability of pocket opening is an important determinant of the potency of compounds like blebbistatin. To test this hypothesis, we used Markov state models (MSMs) built from over 2 ms of aggregate molecular dynamics simulations with explicit solvent. We find that blebbistatin's binding pocket readily opens in simulations of blebbistatin-sensitive myosin isoforms. Comparing these conformational ensembles reveals that the probability of pocket opening correctly identifies which isoforms are most sensitive to blebbistatin inhibition and that docking against MSMs quantitatively predicts blebbistatin binding affinities (R2=0.82). In a blind prediction for an isoform (Myh7b) whose blebbistatin sensitivity was unknown, we find good agreement between predicted and measured IC50s (0.67 µM vs. 0.36 µM). Therefore, we expect this framework to be useful for the development of novel specific drugs across numerous protein targets.

Chemically Accurate Relative Folding Stability of RNA Hairpins from Molecular Simulations.

To benchmark RNA force fields, we compared the folding stabilities of three 12-nucleotide hairpin stem loops estimated by simulation to stabilities determined by experiment. We used umbrella sampling and a reaction coordinate of end-to-end (5' to 3' hydroxyl oxygen) distance to estimate the free energy change of the transition from the native conformation to a fully extended conformation with no hydrogen bonds between non-neighboring bases. Each simulation was performed four times using the AMBER FF99+bsc0+χOL3 force field, and each window, spaced at 1 Å intervals, was sampled for 1 µs, for a total of 552 µs of simulation. We compared differences in the simulated free energy changes to analogous differences in free energies from optical melting experiments using thermodynamic cycles where the free energy change between stretched and random coil sequences is assumed to be sequence-independent. The differences between experimental and simulated ΔΔ G° are, on average, 0.98 ± 0.66 kcal/mol, which is chemically accurate and suggests that analogous simulations could be used predictively. We also report a novel method to identify where replica free energies diverge along a reaction coordinate, thus indicating where additional sampling would most improve convergence. We conclude by discussing methods to more economically perform these simulations.

Physics-based all-atom modeling of RNA energetics and structure.

The database of RNA sequences is exploding, but knowledge of energetics, structures, and dynamics lags behind. All-atom computational methods, such as molecular dynamics, hold promise for closing this gap. New algorithms and faster computers have accelerated progress in improving the reliability and accuracy of predictions. Currently, the methods can facilitate refinement of experimentally determined nuclear magnetic resonance and x-ray structures, but are 'unreliable' for predictions based only on sequence. Much remains to be discovered, however, about the many molecular interactions driving RNA folding and the best way to approximate them quantitatively. The large number of parameters required means that a wide variety of experimental results will be required to benchmark force fields and different approaches. As computational methods become more reliable and accessible, they will be used by an increasing number of biologists, much as x-ray crystallography has expanded. Thus, many fundamental physical principles underlying the computational methods are described. This review presents a summary of the current state of molecular dynamics as applied to RNA. It is designed to be helpful to students, postdoctoral fellows, and faculty who are considering or starting computational studies of RNA. WIREs RNA 2017, 8:e1422. doi: 10.1002/wrna.1422.